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Politics·Rewards 100, 4.5, 100

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politics·Rewards 100, 4.5, 100

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 43%

Starmer - UK PM 39%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 6.7%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 1.4%

Polymarket

$277,600 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President 43%

Starmer - UK PM 39%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 6.7%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 1.4%

Polymarket

$277,600 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

$12,257 Vol.

43%

Starmer - UK PM

$11,225 Vol.

39%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$8,334 Vol.

7%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$13,126 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$8,891 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$12,944 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$12,226 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$15,972 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$10,481 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$15,010 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$13,549 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$10,947 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$8,457 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$17,226 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$9,239 Vol.

1%

Newsom - California Governor

$11,124 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$8,666 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$10,313 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$8,647 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$9,284 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$12,850 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$10,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$11,817 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$14,355 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Colombia President Gustavo Petro at 43% and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 36.5% as the next leader to exit power before 2027, reflecting Petro's constitutionally mandated term end on August 7, 2026, following his 2022 election amid chronic cabinet resignations and low approval, versus Starmer's escalating crisis. Over the past week, Starmer endured heavy Labour losses in local elections on May 8, triggering a cascade of ministerial resignations—including four junior ministers—and public calls from over 90 Labour MPs for his immediate resignation or a leadership timetable, fueling no-confidence vote speculation despite his defiance. This recent turmoil has narrowed the gap with Petro's scheduled departure, while lower odds on others like Cuba's Díaz-Canel stem from resolved crises; a successful UK no-confidence motion or Starmer stabilization could decisively separate the frontrunners.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$277,600
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Colombia President Gustavo Petro at 43% and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 36.5% as the next leader to exit power before 2027, reflecting Petro's constitutionally mandated term end on August 7, 2026, following his 2022 election amid chronic cabinet resignations and low approval, versus Starmer's escalating crisis. Over the past week, Starmer endured heavy Labour losses in local elections on May 8, triggering a cascade of ministerial resignations—including four junior ministers—and public calls from over 90 Labour MPs for his immediate resignation or a leadership timetable, fueling no-confidence vote speculation despite his defiance. This recent turmoil has narrowed the gap with Petro's scheduled departure, while lower odds on others like Cuba's Díaz-Canel stem from resolved crises; a successful UK no-confidence motion or Starmer stabilization could decisively separate the frontrunners.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$277,600
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 43%, followed by "Starmer - UK PM" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" has generated $277.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Petro - Colombia President" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.