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U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

63%

December 31

$112M Vol.

$2M today

$3M Liq.

2,250

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

7%

$13M Vol.

$642K today

$633K Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

<1%

$15M Vol.

$538K today

$2M Liq.

2

Ends in about 24 hours

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

1%

$639K Vol.

$493K today

$30.3K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

47%

June 30

$13M Vol.

$393K today

$277K Liq.

682

Ends in 17 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

60%

June 30

$36M Vol.

$317K today

$329K Liq.

6

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

1%

$19M Vol.

$298K today

$1M Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

52%

June 30

$17M Vol.

$206K today

$319K Liq.

447

Ends in about 2 months

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

27%

December 31

$13M Vol.

$191K today

$448K Liq.

144

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

31%

$5M Vol.

$148K today

$388K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

15%

Oil Sanction Relief

$964K Vol.

$109K today

$226K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

38%

May 31

$102K Vol.

$102K today

$53.3K Liq.

2

Ends in 17 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

76%

$100K Vol.

$51.7K today

$139K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

11%

United Kingdom

$810K Vol.

$341K Liq.

12

Ends in 17 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

46%

$63.0K Vol.

$112K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

45%

Pakistan

$5M Vol.

$359K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

48%

20+

$374K Vol.

$45.8K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

46%

December 31

$7M Vol.

$284K Liq.

118

Ends in 8 months

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

52%

$184K Vol.

$32.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

69%

0-10

$98.5K Vol.

$120K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for U.S. X Iran that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $258.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 63% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on U.S. X Iran predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.