The Trump administration’s explicit rejection of installing or formally endorsing Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader underpins the 95.5% implied probability against U.S. recognition by year-end. President Trump has repeatedly described Pahlavi as untested inside the country, while Vice President Vance stated that regime change was never the U.S. objective in the 2026 conflict. A June memorandum of understanding with Tehran emphasized respect for Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to opposition figures, aligning with broader policy focused on sanctions, nuclear containment, and targeted strikes rather than backing a specific exile. Pahlavi’s public calls for transition, including recent statements at CPAC, have not produced diplomatic commitments or internal Iranian momentum sufficient to alter that stance. Recognition could still occur if renewed escalation produces regime collapse and Washington pivots to a designated transitional authority before December 31.