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Hezbollah predictions & odds

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Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

17%

December 31

$3M Vol.

$794K today

$16.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

4%

May 31

$163K Vol.

$23.2K Liq.

23

Ends in 16 days

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

4%

May 31

$28.9K Vol.

$12.9K Liq.

8

Ends in 16 days

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

4%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$524K Vol.

$181K Liq.

13

Ends in 16 days

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

14%

June 30, 2026

$762K Vol.

$14.3K Liq.

44

Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

61%

May 17

$179K Vol.

$124K today

$83.7K Liq.

8

Ends in 2 days

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

10%

June 30

$1M Vol.

$192K today

$66.7K Liq.

20

Ends in about 2 months

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

22%

$153K Vol.

$11.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

-

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

49%

$119 Vol.

$720 Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

12%

$7.1K Vol.

$4.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

8%

May 31

$1M Vol.

$21.9K Liq.

48

Ends in 16 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

54%

June 30

$18M Vol.

$325K today

$277K Liq.

460

Ends in about 2 months

Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

92%

<5

$4.7K Vol.

$4.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

51%

Team Falcons

$2.5K Vol.

$41.1K Liq.

Ends in about 22 hours

Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

35%

December 31

$14M Vol.

$271K Liq.

1,078

Ends in 8 months

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

59%

Likud

$2.5K Vol.

$24.5K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Counter-Strike: cirahvi vs TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season

Counter-Strike: cirahvi vs TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season

100%

cirahvi

$10.4K Vol.

$1 Liq.

Rocket League: Gentle Mates Alpine vs Team Falcons (BO7) - RLCS Major Boston Playoffs

Rocket League: Gentle Mates Alpine vs Team Falcons (BO7) - RLCS Major Boston Playoffs

Gentle Mates Alpine

$7.3K Vol.

$0 Liq.

Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?

Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?

87%

No Replacement

$28.9K Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

2

Ends in 4 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hezbollah.

Polymarket currently hosts 106 active markets for Hezbollah that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will Hezbollah disarm by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $38.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Counter-Strike: cirahvi vs TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 54% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hezbollah predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.