Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed by parliament in March 2026 to 2028 amid renewed conflict with Israel, widespread displacement, and infrastructure damage that rendered voting in southern districts and the Bekaa impractical. The resulting uncertainty, combined with the confessional electoral system’s tendency toward fragmented outcomes, explains the extremely low probabilities across all listed parties. Hezbollah and its Amal ally have seen their influence erode after military setbacks and the 2024-2025 war, while Amal’s recent support for the Salam government contrasted with Hezbollah’s walkout, highlighting internal Shia divisions. Christian parties such as the Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement compete within their sects but lack broad national reach, and independent or reform-oriented lists have gained traction in prior cycles. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks on Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Army deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament further shape coalition calculations, making any single-party plurality or outright victory dependent on fluid alliances and the unresolved electoral-law debate.