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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

icon for Brazil Presidential Election
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 34.4%

Romeu Zema 8.2%

Renan Santos 7.1%

Polymarket

$73,329,055 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 34.4%

Romeu Zema 8.2%

Renan Santos 7.1%

Polymarket

$73,329,055 Vol.

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$5,345,040 Vol.

43%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$5,263,711 Vol.

34%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$2,223,992 Vol.

8%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$4,863,808 Vol.

7%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$4,382,131 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$2,015,378 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$2,324,717 Vol.

1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$5,769,894 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$3,338,523 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$2,280,258 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$10,646,613 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$8,475,235 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$8,528,292 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$4,994,068 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$2,902,156 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Quaest's May 8-11 survey showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in first-round voting intentions, underscore the tight race reflected in trader consensus, with Lula holding a slim edge but statistical ties in simulated runoffs. Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated right-wing support via his father's endorsement—despite Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment for a coup plot—closing gaps seen in earlier 2026 polling averages. A fragmented field, featuring Romeu Zema at 4% and Ronaldo Caiado at 4-5%, ensures no first-round majority on October 4, likely forcing a runoff. Yesterday's leaked audio linking Flávio to the Banco Master scandal adds volatility, while upcoming debates, economic indicators, and regional turnout in swing states could create separation.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$73,329,055
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Quaest's May 8-11 survey showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in first-round voting intentions, underscore the tight race reflected in trader consensus, with Lula holding a slim edge but statistical ties in simulated runoffs. Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated right-wing support via his father's endorsement—despite Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment for a coup plot—closing gaps seen in earlier 2026 polling averages. A fragmented field, featuring Romeu Zema at 4% and Ronaldo Caiado at 4-5%, ensures no first-round majority on October 4, likely forcing a runoff. Yesterday's leaked audio linking Flávio to the Banco Master scandal adds volatility, while upcoming debates, economic indicators, and regional turnout in swing states could create separation.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$73,329,055
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 43%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $73.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.