Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLucas Ribeiro 83%
Efraim Filho 10%
Cícero Lucena 6%
Nilvan Ferreira 1.2%
$62,653 Vol.
$62,653 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
83%
Efraim Filho
10%
Cícero Lucena
6%
Nilvan Ferreira
1%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 83%
Efraim Filho 10%
Cícero Lucena 6%
Nilvan Ferreira 1.2%
$62,653 Vol.
$62,653 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$18,684 Vol.
83%
Efraim Filho
$14,308 Vol.
10%
Cícero Lucena
$20,569 Vol.
6%
Nilvan Ferreira
$894 Vol.
1%
Flávio Lúcio
$876 Vol.
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,431 Vol.
1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,381 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$62,653End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$62,653End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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