The Paraíba gubernatorial race remains closely contested ahead of the October 2026 vote, with Cícero Lucena holding the highest implied probability at 41% amid a fragmented field. Lucena’s April 2026 resignation as João Pessoa mayor to focus on the campaign, combined with MDB alliances and name recognition from prior executive roles, has anchored his position in recent polling. Veneziano Vital do Rêgo’s 20.9% reflects residual support from his prior governorship and Senate profile, while Efraim Filho’s 12.5% and lower shares for others signal limited consolidation so far. Tight early surveys showing technical ties between leading names, ongoing party negotiations, and undecided voter blocs continue to compress probabilities across contenders. Developments such as convention outcomes, vice-governor selections, or shifts in regional alliances could widen gaps as the first-round dynamics clarify.