**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** STF justices serve until age 75, and impeachment requires a Senate vote that has never succeeded in Brazilian history. Opposition lawmakers filed a fresh impeachment request in the Senate on August 12, 2026, citing alleged press-freedom issues, but Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance prior petitions to a floor vote. De Moraes continues active service, issuing rulings as recently as May 2026 on sentencing laws affecting former President Jair Bolsonaro and holding the deputy chief justice role since late 2025. U.S. sanctions imposed in July 2025 were lifted by December, with only preliminary discussions of new measures reported in mid-August 2026. These external pressures have not altered his domestic tenure or prompted internal court action. The combination of lifetime tenure protections, procedural hurdles in the Senate, absence of successful precedents, and ongoing judicial activity underpins the strong market consensus that de Moraes will stay in office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$30,867 Vol.
$30,867 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$30,867 Vol.
$30,867 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** STF justices serve until age 75, and impeachment requires a Senate vote that has never succeeded in Brazilian history. Opposition lawmakers filed a fresh impeachment request in the Senate on August 12, 2026, citing alleged press-freedom issues, but Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance prior petitions to a floor vote.
De Moraes continues active service, issuing rulings as recently as May 2026 on sentencing laws affecting former President Jair Bolsonaro and holding the deputy chief justice role since late 2025. U.S. sanctions imposed in July 2025 were lifted by December, with only preliminary discussions of new measures reported in mid-August 2026. These external pressures have not altered his domestic tenure or prompted internal court action.
The combination of lifetime tenure protections, procedural hurdles in the Senate, absence of successful precedents, and ongoing judicial activity underpins the strong market consensus that de Moraes will stay in office.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$30,867End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** STF justices serve until age 75, and impeachment requires a Senate vote that has never succeeded in Brazilian history. Opposition lawmakers filed a fresh impeachment request in the Senate on August 12, 2026, citing alleged press-freedom issues, but Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance prior petitions to a floor vote.
De Moraes continues active service, issuing rulings as recently as May 2026 on sentencing laws affecting former President Jair Bolsonaro and holding the deputy chief justice role since late 2025. U.S. sanctions imposed in July 2025 were lifted by December, with only preliminary discussions of new measures reported in mid-August 2026. These external pressures have not altered his domestic tenure or prompted internal court action.
The combination of lifetime tenure protections, procedural hurdles in the Senate, absence of successful precedents, and ongoing judicial activity underpins the strong market consensus that de Moraes will stay in office.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,867End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** STF justices serve until age 75, and impeachment requires a Senate vote that has never succeeded in Brazilian history. Opposition lawmakers filed a fresh impeachment request in the Senate on August 12, 2026, citing alleged press-freedom issues, but Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance prior petitions to a floor vote. De Moraes continues active service, issuing rulings as recently as May 2026 on sentencing laws affecting former President Jair Bolsonaro and holding the deputy chief justice role since late 2025. U.S. sanctions imposed in July 2025 were lifted by December, with only preliminary discussions of new measures reported in mid-August 2026. These external pressures have not altered his domestic tenure or prompted internal court action. The combination of lifetime tenure protections, procedural hurdles in the Senate, absence of successful precedents, and ongoing judicial activity underpins the strong market consensus that de Moraes will stay in office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions