**Traders assign an 81.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal requires a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes) for impeachment on charges of responsibility, a threshold that remains unmet despite multiple pending requests.** A September 2026 internal STF dispute over the Banco Master fraud investigation—centering on alleged messages involving Moraes or his wife’s law firm and banker Daniel Vorcaro—prompted mutual accusations with Justice André Mendonça, public calls for resignation, and dozens of new impeachment petitions (bringing the total against Moraes to around 55–65). Chief Justice Edson Fachin suspended conflicting orders, removed Moraes from the long-running fake-news inquiry, and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him, potentially until December. Post-October 4 election surveys of the incoming Senate indicate roughly 49–51 members open to impeachment proceedings against STF justices, enough for constitutional amendments curbing court powers but short of the votes needed for removal. Senate leadership retains sole discretion to advance petitions, and lifetime tenure until age 75 provides structural protection absent a qualifying Senate vote. These procedural and numerical barriers continue to anchor the market consensus.