**Traders assign an 87% probability to Alexandre de Moraes remaining on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep constitutional and political barriers that have not been overcome.** Impeachment of an STF justice requires broad congressional consensus—typically a Senate supermajority—that opposition efforts tied to the Bolsonaro cases have failed to secure. As of mid-2026, calls from right-wing lawmakers have gathered support from around 41 senators, short of the threshold, and the Senate president has declined to advance votes. Moraes continues to exercise full judicial authority, including a May 2026 ruling suspending legislation that could shorten former President Jair Bolsonaro’s sentence pending full-court review. The Lula administration’s alignment with the court and the absence of any successful challenge since U.S. sanctions were lifted in December 2025 reinforce institutional continuity. While partisan criticism persists, no procedural or electoral development has shifted the balance toward removal.