Lula maintains a commanding position in Pará first-round polling, consistently registering 37-40% support in recent surveys from institutes such as Quaest, Indexa, and AtlasIntel, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-34% and all other named candidates below 9%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval near 47-50% in the state, combined with broad coalition backing that fragments the opposition field. Traders price Lula at 95% implied probability of finishing first because no rival has closed the gap in the final campaign weeks ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic challenges include a sharp late swing toward Bolsonaro or a surprise surge by candidates such as Augusto Cury or Renan Santos, though current data show limited movement in those directions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.9%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$17,063 Vol.
$17,063 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.9%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$17,063 Vol.
$17,063 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,102 Vol.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,205 Vol.
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$546 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$574 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$762 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,280 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$574 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$649 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$596 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$689 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$989 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Pará first-round polling, consistently registering 37-40% support in recent surveys from institutes such as Quaest, Indexa, and AtlasIntel, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-34% and all other named candidates below 9%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval near 47-50% in the state, combined with broad coalition backing that fragments the opposition field. Traders price Lula at 95% implied probability of finishing first because no rival has closed the gap in the final campaign weeks ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic challenges include a sharp late swing toward Bolsonaro or a surprise surge by candidates such as Augusto Cury or Renan Santos, though current data show limited movement in those directions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$17,063End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Pará first-round polling, consistently registering 37-40% support in recent surveys from institutes such as Quaest, Indexa, and AtlasIntel, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-34% and all other named candidates below 9%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval near 47-50% in the state, combined with broad coalition backing that fragments the opposition field. Traders price Lula at 95% implied probability of finishing first because no rival has closed the gap in the final campaign weeks ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic challenges include a sharp late swing toward Bolsonaro or a surprise surge by candidates such as Augusto Cury or Renan Santos, though current data show limited movement in those directions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,063End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Pará first-round polling, consistently registering 37-40% support in recent surveys from institutes such as Quaest, Indexa, and AtlasIntel, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-34% and all other named candidates below 9%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval near 47-50% in the state, combined with broad coalition backing that fragments the opposition field. Traders price Lula at 95% implied probability of finishing first because no rival has closed the gap in the final campaign weeks ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic challenges include a sharp late swing toward Bolsonaro or a surprise surge by candidates such as Augusto Cury or Renan Santos, though current data show limited movement in those directions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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