In the Paraná Senate race for two federal seats, a crowded field of nine registered candidates has produced closely matched polling averages that keep the contest for second place highly uncertain. Recent surveys from July and earlier show multiple contenders—including Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros—separated by single digits or within margins of error, with Álvaro Dias appearing in some earlier samples before the final registration deadline on August 15. The absence of new statewide polling since candidacies were confirmed has left trader consensus reflecting this fragmentation, where vote splitting among PT, Novo, Republicanos, PSD, and PL names sustains tight positioning. Scheduled first-round voting on October 4 could shift the order quickly if late momentum or turnout patterns favor one challenger over others in this plurality contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 44%
Deltan Dallagnol 44%
Gleisi 43%
Dr. Rosinha 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
44%
Deltan Dallagnol
44%
Gleisi
43%
Dr. Rosinha
42%
Filipe Barros
42%
Joaquim do MLB
42%
Cristina Reis Graeml
40%
Karen Guerreiro
40%
Marcelo Marcelino
45%
Alexandre Curi 44%
Deltan Dallagnol 44%
Gleisi 43%
Dr. Rosinha 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$0 Vol.
44%
Deltan Dallagnol
$0 Vol.
44%
Gleisi
$0 Vol.
43%
Dr. Rosinha
$0 Vol.
42%
Filipe Barros
$0 Vol.
42%
Joaquim do MLB
$0 Vol.
42%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$0 Vol.
40%
Karen Guerreiro
$0 Vol.
40%
Marcelo Marcelino
$20 Vol.
45%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Paraná Senate race for two federal seats, a crowded field of nine registered candidates has produced closely matched polling averages that keep the contest for second place highly uncertain. Recent surveys from July and earlier show multiple contenders—including Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros—separated by single digits or within margins of error, with Álvaro Dias appearing in some earlier samples before the final registration deadline on August 15. The absence of new statewide polling since candidacies were confirmed has left trader consensus reflecting this fragmentation, where vote splitting among PT, Novo, Republicanos, PSD, and PL names sustains tight positioning. Scheduled first-round voting on October 4 could shift the order quickly if late momentum or turnout patterns favor one challenger over others in this plurality contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Paraná Senate race for two federal seats, a crowded field of nine registered candidates has produced closely matched polling averages that keep the contest for second place highly uncertain. Recent surveys from July and earlier show multiple contenders—including Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros—separated by single digits or within margins of error, with Álvaro Dias appearing in some earlier samples before the final registration deadline on August 15. The absence of new statewide polling since candidacies were confirmed has left trader consensus reflecting this fragmentation, where vote splitting among PT, Novo, Republicanos, PSD, and PL names sustains tight positioning. Scheduled first-round voting on October 4 could shift the order quickly if late momentum or turnout patterns favor one challenger over others in this plurality contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Paraná Senate race for two federal seats, a crowded field of nine registered candidates has produced closely matched polling averages that keep the contest for second place highly uncertain. Recent surveys from July and earlier show multiple contenders—including Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros—separated by single digits or within margins of error, with Álvaro Dias appearing in some earlier samples before the final registration deadline on August 15. The absence of new statewide polling since candidacies were confirmed has left trader consensus reflecting this fragmentation, where vote splitting among PT, Novo, Republicanos, PSD, and PL names sustains tight positioning. Scheduled first-round voting on October 4 could shift the order quickly if late momentum or turnout patterns favor one challenger over others in this plurality contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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