Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, with recent polls from mid-September showing him at 52-59% of voting intentions, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-23% and all other candidates below 8%. This positioning reflects sustained high approval for his administration among cearenses, consistent regional support in the Northeast, and a fragmented opposition field. Flávio Bolsonaro has stepped up campaign events in the state to narrow the gap ahead of the October vote, yet surveys indicate limited movement in preferences. Trader consensus at 96.4% for Lula accounts for the wide margin in current data, though shifts could still arise from late turnout changes, major campaign developments, or unexpected consolidation behind a challenger before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
$17,511 Vol.
$17,511 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Lula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
$17,511 Vol.
$17,511 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,134 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,126 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$919 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$714 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$765 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$755 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$755 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$625 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$815 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$736 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$701 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$764 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$702 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, with recent polls from mid-September showing him at 52-59% of voting intentions, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-23% and all other candidates below 8%. This positioning reflects sustained high approval for his administration among cearenses, consistent regional support in the Northeast, and a fragmented opposition field. Flávio Bolsonaro has stepped up campaign events in the state to narrow the gap ahead of the October vote, yet surveys indicate limited movement in preferences. Trader consensus at 96.4% for Lula accounts for the wide margin in current data, though shifts could still arise from late turnout changes, major campaign developments, or unexpected consolidation behind a challenger before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,511End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, with recent polls from mid-September showing him at 52-59% of voting intentions, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-23% and all other candidates below 8%. This positioning reflects sustained high approval for his administration among cearenses, consistent regional support in the Northeast, and a fragmented opposition field. Flávio Bolsonaro has stepped up campaign events in the state to narrow the gap ahead of the October vote, yet surveys indicate limited movement in preferences. Trader consensus at 96.4% for Lula accounts for the wide margin in current data, though shifts could still arise from late turnout changes, major campaign developments, or unexpected consolidation behind a challenger before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,511End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, with recent polls from mid-September showing him at 52-59% of voting intentions, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-23% and all other candidates below 8%. This positioning reflects sustained high approval for his administration among cearenses, consistent regional support in the Northeast, and a fragmented opposition field. Flávio Bolsonaro has stepped up campaign events in the state to narrow the gap ahead of the October vote, yet surveys indicate limited movement in preferences. Trader consensus at 96.4% for Lula accounts for the wide margin in current data, though shifts could still arise from late turnout changes, major campaign developments, or unexpected consolidation behind a challenger before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions