Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation, holds a polling edge in the Pará gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel data shows her at 48.5% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, narrowing to a technical tie in some prior surveys and second-round simulations within margins of error. Traders assign her the highest implied probability amid her MDB coalition, established name recognition, and ongoing campaign events across interior regions focused on health decentralization and security. Dr. Daniel, the primary challenger and former Ananindeua mayor, maintains competitiveness through opposition mobilization, though lower support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) limits fragmentation risks. The short timeline to voting and potential runoff dynamics sustain the contest's uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Éder Mauro 1.3%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
58%
Dr. Daniel Santos
41%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Hana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Éder Mauro 1.3%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$17,038 Vol.
58%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$12,154 Vol.
41%
Éder Mauro
$5,288 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$2,815 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$2,872 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$2,855 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation, holds a polling edge in the Pará gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel data shows her at 48.5% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, narrowing to a technical tie in some prior surveys and second-round simulations within margins of error. Traders assign her the highest implied probability amid her MDB coalition, established name recognition, and ongoing campaign events across interior regions focused on health decentralization and security. Dr. Daniel, the primary challenger and former Ananindeua mayor, maintains competitiveness through opposition mobilization, though lower support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) limits fragmentation risks. The short timeline to voting and potential runoff dynamics sustain the contest's uncertainty.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$45,834End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation, holds a polling edge in the Pará gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel data shows her at 48.5% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, narrowing to a technical tie in some prior surveys and second-round simulations within margins of error. Traders assign her the highest implied probability amid her MDB coalition, established name recognition, and ongoing campaign events across interior regions focused on health decentralization and security. Dr. Daniel, the primary challenger and former Ananindeua mayor, maintains competitiveness through opposition mobilization, though lower support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) limits fragmentation risks. The short timeline to voting and potential runoff dynamics sustain the contest's uncertainty.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,834End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation, holds a polling edge in the Pará gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel data shows her at 48.5% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, narrowing to a technical tie in some prior surveys and second-round simulations within margins of error. Traders assign her the highest implied probability amid her MDB coalition, established name recognition, and ongoing campaign events across interior regions focused on health decentralization and security. Dr. Daniel, the primary challenger and former Ananindeua mayor, maintains competitiveness through opposition mobilization, though lower support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) limits fragmentation risks. The short timeline to voting and potential runoff dynamics sustain the contest's uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions