Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial election, fueled by strong approval ratings near 65% in early May Futura/Apex polls and consistent double-digit leads in late April surveys—Genial/Quaest showed him at 38-40% versus Fernando Haddad's 26-28%, while Paraná Pesquisas had 48% to 33%. Haddad trails as the primary PT challenger in a polarized race lacking a strong third option, boosting Tarcísio's first-round prospects, with Kim Kataguiri at 3.9%, Márcio França at 1.4%, and Erika Hilton at 0.5% reflecting opposition fragmentation. A potential October 25 runoff hinges on vote consolidation, though economic pressures or scandals could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.9%
Kim Kataguiri 3.9%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
Kim Kataguiri
4%
Márcio França
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.9%
Kim Kataguiri 3.9%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,880 Vol.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 Vol.
12%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,730 Vol.
4%
Márcio França
$2,343 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$3,038 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial election, fueled by strong approval ratings near 65% in early May Futura/Apex polls and consistent double-digit leads in late April surveys—Genial/Quaest showed him at 38-40% versus Fernando Haddad's 26-28%, while Paraná Pesquisas had 48% to 33%. Haddad trails as the primary PT challenger in a polarized race lacking a strong third option, boosting Tarcísio's first-round prospects, with Kim Kataguiri at 3.9%, Márcio França at 1.4%, and Erika Hilton at 0.5% reflecting opposition fragmentation. A potential October 25 runoff hinges on vote consolidation, though economic pressures or scandals could shift dynamics.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$21,533End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial election, fueled by strong approval ratings near 65% in early May Futura/Apex polls and consistent double-digit leads in late April surveys—Genial/Quaest showed him at 38-40% versus Fernando Haddad's 26-28%, while Paraná Pesquisas had 48% to 33%. Haddad trails as the primary PT challenger in a polarized race lacking a strong third option, boosting Tarcísio's first-round prospects, with Kim Kataguiri at 3.9%, Márcio França at 1.4%, and Erika Hilton at 0.5% reflecting opposition fragmentation. A potential October 25 runoff hinges on vote consolidation, though economic pressures or scandals could shift dynamics.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$21,533End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial election, fueled by strong approval ratings near 65% in early May Futura/Apex polls and consistent double-digit leads in late April surveys—Genial/Quaest showed him at 38-40% versus Fernando Haddad's 26-28%, while Paraná Pesquisas had 48% to 33%. Haddad trails as the primary PT challenger in a polarized race lacking a strong third option, boosting Tarcísio's first-round prospects, with Kim Kataguiri at 3.9%, Márcio França at 1.4%, and Erika Hilton at 0.5% reflecting opposition fragmentation. A potential October 25 runoff hinges on vote consolidation, though economic pressures or scandals could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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