Trader consensus on “No” for Flávio Bolsonaro facing charges or arrest by September 30 stems from the preliminary stage of the Supreme Court inquiry unsealed in mid-September. That probe, opened in July and tied to alleged money laundering and corruption in financing the “Dark Horse” film via the Banco Master scandal, remains in the investigative phase without a formal denúncia from the Prosecutor-General’s Office. Brazilian legal procedures for sitting senators and presidential candidates require multiple steps, including evidence review and court approval, which rarely conclude in days. Bolsonaro’s active October election campaign further reduces the likelihood of swift action. While new evidence or expedited procedural moves could theoretically shift the outcome, no such developments have surfaced in the current 10-day window.