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icon for Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?

Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?

icon for Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?

Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?

19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Representative Eric Swalwell have been active since April 2026, including probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities, yet no formal charges or indictments have resulted. The most recent development—an FBI search of his Washington home and seizure of electronic devices at a San Francisco airport in mid-August—represents an escalation in evidence gathering rather than an imminent charging decision. Such federal and state criminal processes typically involve extended review of materials, witness interviews, and prosecutorial deliberation, making resolution within the narrow window to September 30 improbable. This timeline and procedural pace underpin the market's 82% implied probability that no charges will occur by the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$20
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Representative Eric Swalwell have been active since April 2026, including probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities, yet no formal charges or indictments have resulted. The most recent development—an FBI search of his Washington home and seizure of electronic devices at a San Francisco airport in mid-August—represents an escalation in evidence gathering rather than an imminent charging decision. Such federal and state criminal processes typically involve extended review of materials, witness interviews, and prosecutorial deliberation, making resolution within the narrow window to September 30 improbable. This timeline and procedural pace underpin the market's 82% implied probability that no charges will occur by the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$20
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.