Nicolás Maduro remains in federal custody in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial on U.S. narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges stemming from his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because defense counsel has moved to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds, arguing the alleged conduct occurred in his official capacity and that the raid itself lacked lawful extradition or UN authorization. A November 2026 hearing will address these motions after prosecutors respond in October. Additional uncertainty stems from Argentina’s separate extradition request on crimes-against-humanity allegations and from ongoing pretrial litigation that could delay or derail the case. Conviction carries potential life sentences, yet the extended timeline and jurisdictional challenges currently shape the market’s leading outcome.