Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's deposed leader, has been held in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's MDC since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas, facing narco-terrorism charges alongside wife Cilia Flores that carry potential sentences from 30 years to life. Recent court appearances in Manhattan, including a March not-guilty plea and ongoing motion to dismiss citing head-of-state jurisdictional issues, keep trader consensus fragmented, with 60+ months (34.5%) edging 20–40 months (25.9%) and no prison time (22.5%). Prosecutorial evidence from whistleblowers bolsters long-sentence odds, but defenses challenging U.S. sanctions and arrest validity sustain tightness; a conviction, plea deal, or trial ruling could sharply separate probabilities amid the Southern District of New York's prosecution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated60+ 35%
20–40 25.9%
No prison time 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 Vol.
$527,018 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
23%
<20
5%
20–40
26%
40–60
10%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
20–40 25.9%
No prison time 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 Vol.
$527,018 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
$373,571 Vol.
23%
<20
$57,253 Vol.
5%
20–40
$48,069 Vol.
26%
40–60
$15,908 Vol.
10%
60+
$32,216 Vol.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's deposed leader, has been held in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's MDC since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas, facing narco-terrorism charges alongside wife Cilia Flores that carry potential sentences from 30 years to life. Recent court appearances in Manhattan, including a March not-guilty plea and ongoing motion to dismiss citing head-of-state jurisdictional issues, keep trader consensus fragmented, with 60+ months (34.5%) edging 20–40 months (25.9%) and no prison time (22.5%). Prosecutorial evidence from whistleblowers bolsters long-sentence odds, but defenses challenging U.S. sanctions and arrest validity sustain tightness; a conviction, plea deal, or trial ruling could sharply separate probabilities amid the Southern District of New York's prosecution.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$527,018End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's deposed leader, has been held in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's MDC since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas, facing narco-terrorism charges alongside wife Cilia Flores that carry potential sentences from 30 years to life. Recent court appearances in Manhattan, including a March not-guilty plea and ongoing motion to dismiss citing head-of-state jurisdictional issues, keep trader consensus fragmented, with 60+ months (34.5%) edging 20–40 months (25.9%) and no prison time (22.5%). Prosecutorial evidence from whistleblowers bolsters long-sentence odds, but defenses challenging U.S. sanctions and arrest validity sustain tightness; a conviction, plea deal, or trial ruling could sharply separate probabilities amid the Southern District of New York's prosecution.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$527,018End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's deposed leader, has been held in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's MDC since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas, facing narco-terrorism charges alongside wife Cilia Flores that carry potential sentences from 30 years to life. Recent court appearances in Manhattan, including a March not-guilty plea and ongoing motion to dismiss citing head-of-state jurisdictional issues, keep trader consensus fragmented, with 60+ months (34.5%) edging 20–40 months (25.9%) and no prison time (22.5%). Prosecutorial evidence from whistleblowers bolsters long-sentence odds, but defenses challenging U.S. sanctions and arrest validity sustain tightness; a conviction, plea deal, or trial ruling could sharply separate probabilities amid the Southern District of New York's prosecution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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