**Sweden Democrats' vote share in the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election settled at 17.5%, placing it squarely in the 16-18% range that commands near-certain market pricing.** Official results showed a 3.0 percentage point decline from the party's 20.5% in 2022, with SD finishing third behind the Social Democrats (28.0%) and Moderates (19.9%). Late-campaign polling averages had clustered around 18-19%, but final tallies reflected modest erosion amid a tight bloc contest where the centre-left opposition secured a narrow parliamentary majority. The market's overwhelming consensus on 16-18% aligns directly with these confirmed national results, with only minimal probability assigned to an 18-20% outcome. Limited upside scenarios include final adjustments from remaining advance or overseas ballots, though the scale of votes already counted makes meaningful shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16-18% 100.0%
<16% <1%
18-20% <1%
20%+ <1%
$187,654 Vol.
$187,654 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
No
16-18%
Yes
18-20%
No
20%+
No
16-18% 100.0%
<16% <1%
18-20% <1%
20%+ <1%
$187,654 Vol.
$187,654 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
$28,795 Vol.
No
16-18%
$60,765 Vol.
Yes
18-20%
$48,300 Vol.
No
20%+
$49,793 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Sweden Democrats' vote share in the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election settled at 17.5%, placing it squarely in the 16-18% range that commands near-certain market pricing.**
Official results showed a 3.0 percentage point decline from the party's 20.5% in 2022, with SD finishing third behind the Social Democrats (28.0%) and Moderates (19.9%). Late-campaign polling averages had clustered around 18-19%, but final tallies reflected modest erosion amid a tight bloc contest where the centre-left opposition secured a narrow parliamentary majority.
The market's overwhelming consensus on 16-18% aligns directly with these confirmed national results, with only minimal probability assigned to an 18-20% outcome. Limited upside scenarios include final adjustments from remaining advance or overseas ballots, though the scale of votes already counted makes meaningful shifts improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$187,654End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Sweden Democrats' vote share in the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election settled at 17.5%, placing it squarely in the 16-18% range that commands near-certain market pricing.**
Official results showed a 3.0 percentage point decline from the party's 20.5% in 2022, with SD finishing third behind the Social Democrats (28.0%) and Moderates (19.9%). Late-campaign polling averages had clustered around 18-19%, but final tallies reflected modest erosion amid a tight bloc contest where the centre-left opposition secured a narrow parliamentary majority.
The market's overwhelming consensus on 16-18% aligns directly with these confirmed national results, with only minimal probability assigned to an 18-20% outcome. Limited upside scenarios include final adjustments from remaining advance or overseas ballots, though the scale of votes already counted makes meaningful shifts improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$187,654End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Sweden Democrats' vote share in the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election settled at 17.5%, placing it squarely in the 16-18% range that commands near-certain market pricing.** Official results showed a 3.0 percentage point decline from the party's 20.5% in 2022, with SD finishing third behind the Social Democrats (28.0%) and Moderates (19.9%). Late-campaign polling averages had clustered around 18-19%, but final tallies reflected modest erosion amid a tight bloc contest where the centre-left opposition secured a narrow parliamentary majority. The market's overwhelming consensus on 16-18% aligns directly with these confirmed national results, with only minimal probability assigned to an 18-20% outcome. Limited upside scenarios include final adjustments from remaining advance or overseas ballots, though the scale of votes already counted makes meaningful shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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