Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<143 24%
163+ 24%
153–157 21%
148–152 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
24%
143–147
20%
148–152
21%
153–157
21%
158–162
10%
163+
24%
<143 24%
163+ 24%
153–157 21%
148–152 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 Vol.
24%
143–147
$0 Vol.
20%
148–152
$0 Vol.
21%
153–157
$0 Vol.
21%
158–162
$0 Vol.
10%
163+
$0 Vol.
24%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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