The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced preliminary results of 5.7% for the Grüne and 4.8% for the BSW, confirming the Grüne's lead in second-round vote share. Pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA had shown the Grüne holding steady near 5% while the BSW hovered at or below that level, reflecting limited voter mobilization for the newer party amid stronger established left and center-left options. This consistent polling gap and the completed ballot count underpin the 99.7% trader consensus on the Grüne. Final certification by state authorities or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the narrow margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBSW
<1% chance
$8,600 Vol.
$8,600 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
BSW
<1% chance
$8,600 Vol.
$8,600 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced preliminary results of 5.7% for the Grüne and 4.8% for the BSW, confirming the Grüne's lead in second-round vote share. Pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA had shown the Grüne holding steady near 5% while the BSW hovered at or below that level, reflecting limited voter mobilization for the newer party amid stronger established left and center-left options. This consistent polling gap and the completed ballot count underpin the 99.7% trader consensus on the Grüne. Final certification by state authorities or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the narrow margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$8,600End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Grüne
No dispute
Final outcome: Grüne
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced preliminary results of 5.7% for the Grüne and 4.8% for the BSW, confirming the Grüne's lead in second-round vote share. Pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA had shown the Grüne holding steady near 5% while the BSW hovered at or below that level, reflecting limited voter mobilization for the newer party amid stronger established left and center-left options. This consistent polling gap and the completed ballot count underpin the 99.7% trader consensus on the Grüne. Final certification by state authorities or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the narrow margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$8,600End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Grüne
No dispute
Final outcome: Grüne
The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced preliminary results of 5.7% for the Grüne and 4.8% for the BSW, confirming the Grüne's lead in second-round vote share. Pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA had shown the Grüne holding steady near 5% while the BSW hovered at or below that level, reflecting limited voter mobilization for the newer party amid stronger established left and center-left options. This consistent polling gap and the completed ballot count underpin the 99.7% trader consensus on the Grüne. Final certification by state authorities or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the narrow margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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