The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
Grüne
88%
SPD
85%
Linke
54%
CDU
42%
AfD
6%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
$2,894 Vol.
Grüne
$83 Vol.
88%
SPD
$104 Vol.
85%
Linke
$339 Vol.
54%
CDU
$271 Vol.
42%
AfD
$1,098 Vol.
6%
FDP
$146 Vol.
5%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
FW
$573 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,894End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$2,894End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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