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icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Politics·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Politics·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$2,147,784 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,147,784 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30, 2026

$248,948 Vol.

7%

October 31, 2026

$63,625 Vol.

19%

December 31, 2026

$1,835,313 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Recent state election results have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s leadership.** On September 20, his CDU suffered a historic low of 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—falling below the 5% threshold and exiting the state parliament for the first time—while the AfD took first place with around 38%. In Berlin, the CDU placed second behind Die Linke. These outcomes followed the AfD’s strong win in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the CDU’s support halved. Merz has vowed to remain in office and advance his coalition’s reform package on taxes, pensions, healthcare, and bureaucracy, but his approval ratings sit near record lows and national polls show the AfD leading. Party discussions on a potential leadership change or “chancellor swap” are underway, with names such as Hendrik Wüst or Markus Söder mentioned internally, though no formal challenge has materialized. The next federal election is scheduled for 2029, but coalition stability and upcoming state votes will shape near-term dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,147,784
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Recent state election results have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s leadership.** On September 20, his CDU suffered a historic low of 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—falling below the 5% threshold and exiting the state parliament for the first time—while the AfD took first place with around 38%. In Berlin, the CDU placed second behind Die Linke. These outcomes followed the AfD’s strong win in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the CDU’s support halved. Merz has vowed to remain in office and advance his coalition’s reform package on taxes, pensions, healthcare, and bureaucracy, but his approval ratings sit near record lows and national polls show the AfD leading. Party discussions on a potential leadership change or “chancellor swap” are underway, with names such as Hendrik Wüst or Markus Söder mentioned internally, though no formal challenge has materialized. The next federal election is scheduled for 2029, but coalition stability and upcoming state votes will shape near-term dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,147,784
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 24%, followed by "October 31, 2026" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31, 2026" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.