The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 featured an expanded electorate of roughly 2.49 million eligible voters, up from 2.43 million in the 2023 repeat vote, due to increased naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. This structural widening, paired with a competitive multi-party contest involving Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and others, drove stronger mobilization across ideological lines. Intermediate counts at 4 p.m. already showed participation 9.4 points above the prior cycle’s comparable figure, and final results confirmed 74.2% turnout—an 11.3-point rise over the 62.9% baseline. Trader consensus at 99.7% for “Up” reflects these verifiable shifts and the absence of countervailing barriers. Only an unforeseen revision in certified totals or a redefinition of the comparison year could alter resolution, both of which remain improbable given official tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
>99% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
Up
>99% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 featured an expanded electorate of roughly 2.49 million eligible voters, up from 2.43 million in the 2023 repeat vote, due to increased naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. This structural widening, paired with a competitive multi-party contest involving Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and others, drove stronger mobilization across ideological lines. Intermediate counts at 4 p.m. already showed participation 9.4 points above the prior cycle’s comparable figure, and final results confirmed 74.2% turnout—an 11.3-point rise over the 62.9% baseline. Trader consensus at 99.7% for “Up” reflects these verifiable shifts and the absence of countervailing barriers. Only an unforeseen revision in certified totals or a redefinition of the comparison year could alter resolution, both of which remain improbable given official tallies.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,683End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 featured an expanded electorate of roughly 2.49 million eligible voters, up from 2.43 million in the 2023 repeat vote, due to increased naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. This structural widening, paired with a competitive multi-party contest involving Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and others, drove stronger mobilization across ideological lines. Intermediate counts at 4 p.m. already showed participation 9.4 points above the prior cycle’s comparable figure, and final results confirmed 74.2% turnout—an 11.3-point rise over the 62.9% baseline. Trader consensus at 99.7% for “Up” reflects these verifiable shifts and the absence of countervailing barriers. Only an unforeseen revision in certified totals or a redefinition of the comparison year could alter resolution, both of which remain improbable given official tallies.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,683End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 featured an expanded electorate of roughly 2.49 million eligible voters, up from 2.43 million in the 2023 repeat vote, due to increased naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. This structural widening, paired with a competitive multi-party contest involving Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and others, drove stronger mobilization across ideological lines. Intermediate counts at 4 p.m. already showed participation 9.4 points above the prior cycle’s comparable figure, and final results confirmed 74.2% turnout—an 11.3-point rise over the 62.9% baseline. Trader consensus at 99.7% for “Up” reflects these verifiable shifts and the absence of countervailing barriers. Only an unforeseen revision in certified totals or a redefinition of the comparison year could alter resolution, both of which remain improbable given official tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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