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icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?

icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Up

51% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Up

51% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%. If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%. If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%. If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%. If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 51% for "Up." A price of 51% means the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?," decide whether you believe Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on September 20 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on August 6. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is 51% for "Up," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 51% chance that Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price will finish up over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?" market resolves based on a comparison of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on September 20 versus noon ET on August 6, using Binance MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN-PARLIAMENTARY-ELECTION-TURNOUT/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the September 20 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.