The election on September 20, 2026, produced preliminary results showing the CDU at 4.9 percent of second votes, well below the five-percent threshold for Landtag entry and down sharply from 13.3 percent in 2021. Pre-election polling had already signaled sustained weakness, with the party stuck in the low single digits amid AfD gains to around 38 percent and an SPD share near 35 percent. High turnout and voter shifts away from the CDU reinforced the outcome across multiple survey firms. Trader consensus at 99.8 percent for under five percent reflects this confirmed shortfall in counted ballots. Only a material revision in the official final tally, still pending full certification, could alter resolution, though such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
<1% chance
$134,616 Vol.
$134,616 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Over
<1% chance
$134,616 Vol.
$134,616 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The election on September 20, 2026, produced preliminary results showing the CDU at 4.9 percent of second votes, well below the five-percent threshold for Landtag entry and down sharply from 13.3 percent in 2021. Pre-election polling had already signaled sustained weakness, with the party stuck in the low single digits amid AfD gains to around 38 percent and an SPD share near 35 percent. High turnout and voter shifts away from the CDU reinforced the outcome across multiple survey firms. Trader consensus at 99.8 percent for under five percent reflects this confirmed shortfall in counted ballots. Only a material revision in the official final tally, still pending full certification, could alter resolution, though such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$134,616End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The election on September 20, 2026, produced preliminary results showing the CDU at 4.9 percent of second votes, well below the five-percent threshold for Landtag entry and down sharply from 13.3 percent in 2021. Pre-election polling had already signaled sustained weakness, with the party stuck in the low single digits amid AfD gains to around 38 percent and an SPD share near 35 percent. High turnout and voter shifts away from the CDU reinforced the outcome across multiple survey firms. Trader consensus at 99.8 percent for under five percent reflects this confirmed shortfall in counted ballots. Only a material revision in the official final tally, still pending full certification, could alter resolution, though such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$134,616End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The election on September 20, 2026, produced preliminary results showing the CDU at 4.9 percent of second votes, well below the five-percent threshold for Landtag entry and down sharply from 13.3 percent in 2021. Pre-election polling had already signaled sustained weakness, with the party stuck in the low single digits amid AfD gains to around 38 percent and an SPD share near 35 percent. High turnout and voter shifts away from the CDU reinforced the outcome across multiple survey firms. Trader consensus at 99.8 percent for under five percent reflects this confirmed shortfall in counted ballots. Only a material revision in the official final tally, still pending full certification, could alter resolution, though such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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