The election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern took place on September 20, 2026, with preliminary official results placing the CDU at 4.9 percent—a sharp drop from 13.3 percent in 2021 and consistent with late polling averages around 6–8 percent. This outcome reflects sustained voter shifts toward the AfD and SPD, alongside the CDU’s inability to regain ground in the eastern state amid national party challenges and regional competition. Traders assign near-certain probability to an under-10 percent finish because all major forecasts and the initial count align well below the threshold, with no material late swing factors observed. Only an unprecedented revision in the final certified tally or unforeseen procedural dispute could alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
<1% chance
$21,509 Vol.
$21,509 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Over
<1% chance
$21,509 Vol.
$21,509 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern took place on September 20, 2026, with preliminary official results placing the CDU at 4.9 percent—a sharp drop from 13.3 percent in 2021 and consistent with late polling averages around 6–8 percent. This outcome reflects sustained voter shifts toward the AfD and SPD, alongside the CDU’s inability to regain ground in the eastern state amid national party challenges and regional competition. Traders assign near-certain probability to an under-10 percent finish because all major forecasts and the initial count align well below the threshold, with no material late swing factors observed. Only an unprecedented revision in the final certified tally or unforeseen procedural dispute could alter resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$21,509End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern took place on September 20, 2026, with preliminary official results placing the CDU at 4.9 percent—a sharp drop from 13.3 percent in 2021 and consistent with late polling averages around 6–8 percent. This outcome reflects sustained voter shifts toward the AfD and SPD, alongside the CDU’s inability to regain ground in the eastern state amid national party challenges and regional competition. Traders assign near-certain probability to an under-10 percent finish because all major forecasts and the initial count align well below the threshold, with no material late swing factors observed. Only an unprecedented revision in the final certified tally or unforeseen procedural dispute could alter resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$21,509End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
The election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern took place on September 20, 2026, with preliminary official results placing the CDU at 4.9 percent—a sharp drop from 13.3 percent in 2021 and consistent with late polling averages around 6–8 percent. This outcome reflects sustained voter shifts toward the AfD and SPD, alongside the CDU’s inability to regain ground in the eastern state amid national party challenges and regional competition. Traders assign near-certain probability to an under-10 percent finish because all major forecasts and the initial count align well below the threshold, with no material late swing factors observed. Only an unprecedented revision in the final certified tally or unforeseen procedural dispute could alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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