The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September 2026 delivered Die Linke just 6.5 percent of the vote, well below the 11 percent threshold. This outcome aligns with polling trends throughout the campaign, where the party hovered between 9 and 12 percent in the final weeks and showed a modest decline from its 9.9 percent share in 2021 amid competition from the SPD-led government and rising AfD support. Late surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen placed Linke near or under 10 percent, reflecting limited momentum for the junior coalition partner. Trader consensus on the “under” side at 99.5 percent reflects this consistent data and the preliminary count. Certification of final results or any narrow recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the figure, though both appear unlikely to push the share above 11 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
<1% chance
$5,814 Vol.
$5,814 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Over
<1% chance
$5,814 Vol.
$5,814 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September 2026 delivered Die Linke just 6.5 percent of the vote, well below the 11 percent threshold. This outcome aligns with polling trends throughout the campaign, where the party hovered between 9 and 12 percent in the final weeks and showed a modest decline from its 9.9 percent share in 2021 amid competition from the SPD-led government and rising AfD support. Late surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen placed Linke near or under 10 percent, reflecting limited momentum for the junior coalition partner. Trader consensus on the “under” side at 99.5 percent reflects this consistent data and the preliminary count. Certification of final results or any narrow recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the figure, though both appear unlikely to push the share above 11 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$5,814End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September 2026 delivered Die Linke just 6.5 percent of the vote, well below the 11 percent threshold. This outcome aligns with polling trends throughout the campaign, where the party hovered between 9 and 12 percent in the final weeks and showed a modest decline from its 9.9 percent share in 2021 amid competition from the SPD-led government and rising AfD support. Late surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen placed Linke near or under 10 percent, reflecting limited momentum for the junior coalition partner. Trader consensus on the “under” side at 99.5 percent reflects this consistent data and the preliminary count. Certification of final results or any narrow recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the figure, though both appear unlikely to push the share above 11 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$5,814End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September 2026 delivered Die Linke just 6.5 percent of the vote, well below the 11 percent threshold. This outcome aligns with polling trends throughout the campaign, where the party hovered between 9 and 12 percent in the final weeks and showed a modest decline from its 9.9 percent share in 2021 amid competition from the SPD-led government and rising AfD support. Late surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen placed Linke near or under 10 percent, reflecting limited momentum for the junior coalition partner. Trader consensus on the “under” side at 99.5 percent reflects this consistent data and the preliminary count. Certification of final results or any narrow recount adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could alter the figure, though both appear unlikely to push the share above 11 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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