The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September produced a BSW result of 4.8 percent, below the 5 percent electoral threshold required for Landtag seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA, placed the party between 3 and 5 percent in the final weeks, reflecting limited regional support and competition from established left-leaning options such as Die Linke. The completed ballot count aligns with these trends and the party's performance in prior eastern state contests. Trader consensus at 100 percent for under 5 percent rests on the verified preliminary tallies and absence of significant late swings. Remaining uncertainty is limited to minor adjustments from final certification or localized recounts, though these are unlikely to alter the statewide outcome given the margin below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
<1% chance
$11,920 Vol.
$11,920 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Over
<1% chance
$11,920 Vol.
$11,920 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September produced a BSW result of 4.8 percent, below the 5 percent electoral threshold required for Landtag seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA, placed the party between 3 and 5 percent in the final weeks, reflecting limited regional support and competition from established left-leaning options such as Die Linke. The completed ballot count aligns with these trends and the party's performance in prior eastern state contests. Trader consensus at 100 percent for under 5 percent rests on the verified preliminary tallies and absence of significant late swings. Remaining uncertainty is limited to minor adjustments from final certification or localized recounts, though these are unlikely to alter the statewide outcome given the margin below the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$11,920End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September produced a BSW result of 4.8 percent, below the 5 percent electoral threshold required for Landtag seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA, placed the party between 3 and 5 percent in the final weeks, reflecting limited regional support and competition from established left-leaning options such as Die Linke. The completed ballot count aligns with these trends and the party's performance in prior eastern state contests. Trader consensus at 100 percent for under 5 percent rests on the verified preliminary tallies and absence of significant late swings. Remaining uncertainty is limited to minor adjustments from final certification or localized recounts, though these are unlikely to alter the statewide outcome given the margin below the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$11,920End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September produced a BSW result of 4.8 percent, below the 5 percent electoral threshold required for Landtag seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA, placed the party between 3 and 5 percent in the final weeks, reflecting limited regional support and competition from established left-leaning options such as Die Linke. The completed ballot count aligns with these trends and the party's performance in prior eastern state contests. Trader consensus at 100 percent for under 5 percent rests on the verified preliminary tallies and absence of significant late swings. Remaining uncertainty is limited to minor adjustments from final certification or localized recounts, though these are unlikely to alter the statewide outcome given the margin below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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