Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 19%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
32%
Linke 2-5%
31%
Linke 5-10%
27%
Linke 10%+
4%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
15%
CDU 5-10%
7%
CDU 10%+
2%
AfD 0-2%
2%
AfD 2-5%
2%
AfD 5%+
2%
Another party wins
2%
Linke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 19%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$20 Vol.
32%
Linke 2-5%
$259 Vol.
31%
Linke 5-10%
$23 Vol.
27%
Linke 10%+
$95 Vol.
4%
CDU 0-2%
$0 Vol.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$0 Vol.
15%
CDU 5-10%
$0 Vol.
7%
CDU 10%+
$45 Vol.
2%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Vol.
2%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Vol.
2%
AfD 5%+
$0 Vol.
2%
Another party wins
$65 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$507End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$507End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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