Recent polling averages place the Greens (Grüne) in the mid-to-high teens ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, sustaining tight trader positioning between the 14-17% and 17-20% brackets. Surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap through mid-August show Grüne at 16-18%, down slightly from prior readings amid a fragmented field where Die Linke leads near 20%, the CDU holds around 19-20%, the AfD sits near 17-18%, and the SPD trails at 12-13%. Housing shortages, security concerns, and climate policy debates dominate the campaign, with candidate Werner Graf emphasizing renewables and rental protections. Volatility in this multi-party contest, combined with potential turnout shifts among urban and younger voters, keeps outcomes near the current implied probabilities without a decisive late catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14-17% 37%
17-20% 36%
20%+ 15%
<14% 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
12%
14-17%
37%
17-20%
36%
20%+
15%
14-17% 37%
17-20% 36%
20%+ 15%
<14% 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
$0 Vol.
12%
14-17%
$50 Vol.
37%
17-20%
$0 Vol.
36%
20%+
$0 Vol.
15%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the Greens (Grüne) in the mid-to-high teens ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, sustaining tight trader positioning between the 14-17% and 17-20% brackets. Surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap through mid-August show Grüne at 16-18%, down slightly from prior readings amid a fragmented field where Die Linke leads near 20%, the CDU holds around 19-20%, the AfD sits near 17-18%, and the SPD trails at 12-13%. Housing shortages, security concerns, and climate policy debates dominate the campaign, with candidate Werner Graf emphasizing renewables and rental protections. Volatility in this multi-party contest, combined with potential turnout shifts among urban and younger voters, keeps outcomes near the current implied probabilities without a decisive late catalyst.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the Greens (Grüne) in the mid-to-high teens ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, sustaining tight trader positioning between the 14-17% and 17-20% brackets. Surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap through mid-August show Grüne at 16-18%, down slightly from prior readings amid a fragmented field where Die Linke leads near 20%, the CDU holds around 19-20%, the AfD sits near 17-18%, and the SPD trails at 12-13%. Housing shortages, security concerns, and climate policy debates dominate the campaign, with candidate Werner Graf emphasizing renewables and rental protections. Volatility in this multi-party contest, combined with potential turnout shifts among urban and younger voters, keeps outcomes near the current implied probabilities without a decisive late catalyst.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Greens (Grüne) in the mid-to-high teens ahead of the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, sustaining tight trader positioning between the 14-17% and 17-20% brackets. Surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap through mid-August show Grüne at 16-18%, down slightly from prior readings amid a fragmented field where Die Linke leads near 20%, the CDU holds around 19-20%, the AfD sits near 17-18%, and the SPD trails at 12-13%. Housing shortages, security concerns, and climate policy debates dominate the campaign, with candidate Werner Graf emphasizing renewables and rental protections. Volatility in this multi-party contest, combined with potential turnout shifts among urban and younger voters, keeps outcomes near the current implied probabilities without a decisive late catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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