The election for the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag took place on 6 September 2026, with preliminary official results showing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 43.8 percent of the second votes. This outcome more than doubled the party’s 20.8 percent share from the 2021 election and placed it well above the 42 percent threshold, producing 39 of 83 seats. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the “over” side once vote counting confirmed the margin, reflecting the decisive lead over the Christian Democratic Union, which fell to 17.2 percent. Record turnout of 77.8 percent and strong AfD performance in direct constituencies further locked in the result. Minor adjustments in the final certified tally or procedural reviews remain theoretically possible but would require an unprecedented shift to move the share below 42 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
>99% chance
$55,503 Vol.
$55,503 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Over
>99% chance
$55,503 Vol.
$55,503 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).The election for the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag took place on 6 September 2026, with preliminary official results showing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 43.8 percent of the second votes. This outcome more than doubled the party’s 20.8 percent share from the 2021 election and placed it well above the 42 percent threshold, producing 39 of 83 seats. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the “over” side once vote counting confirmed the margin, reflecting the decisive lead over the Christian Democratic Union, which fell to 17.2 percent. Record turnout of 77.8 percent and strong AfD performance in direct constituencies further locked in the result. Minor adjustments in the final certified tally or procedural reviews remain theoretically possible but would require an unprecedented shift to move the share below 42 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$55,503End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Over
No dispute
Final outcome: Over
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).The election for the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag took place on 6 September 2026, with preliminary official results showing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 43.8 percent of the second votes. This outcome more than doubled the party’s 20.8 percent share from the 2021 election and placed it well above the 42 percent threshold, producing 39 of 83 seats. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the “over” side once vote counting confirmed the margin, reflecting the decisive lead over the Christian Democratic Union, which fell to 17.2 percent. Record turnout of 77.8 percent and strong AfD performance in direct constituencies further locked in the result. Minor adjustments in the final certified tally or procedural reviews remain theoretically possible but would require an unprecedented shift to move the share below 42 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$55,503End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Over
No dispute
Final outcome: Over
The election for the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag took place on 6 September 2026, with preliminary official results showing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 43.8 percent of the second votes. This outcome more than doubled the party’s 20.8 percent share from the 2021 election and placed it well above the 42 percent threshold, producing 39 of 83 seats. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the “over” side once vote counting confirmed the margin, reflecting the decisive lead over the Christian Democratic Union, which fell to 17.2 percent. Record turnout of 77.8 percent and strong AfD performance in direct constituencies further locked in the result. Minor adjustments in the final certified tally or procedural reviews remain theoretically possible but would require an unprecedented shift to move the share below 42 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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