Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, with the CDU and AfD closely matched at 17-20 percent and the Greens near 16 percent, leaving the contest for third place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preferences among these mid-tier parties. Trader consensus reflects this narrow gap, with AfD, Greens, and CDU priced as the main contenders while smaller parties trail well behind the five-percent threshold. The CDU's candidate switch to Stefan Evers has not produced a clear polling advantage, and ongoing volatility in support for the AfD and Greens amid national trends keeps the ordering fluid. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns could widen or close the margins among these parties before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 11%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
34%
Grüne
29%
CDU
24%
Linke
11%
SPD
9%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 11%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Vol.
34%
Grüne
$3,681 Vol.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Vol.
24%
Linke
$4,578 Vol.
11%
SPD
$1,268 Vol.
9%
FDP
$674 Vol.
<1%
FW
$582 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$750 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, with the CDU and AfD closely matched at 17-20 percent and the Greens near 16 percent, leaving the contest for third place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preferences among these mid-tier parties. Trader consensus reflects this narrow gap, with AfD, Greens, and CDU priced as the main contenders while smaller parties trail well behind the five-percent threshold. The CDU's candidate switch to Stefan Evers has not produced a clear polling advantage, and ongoing volatility in support for the AfD and Greens amid national trends keeps the ordering fluid. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns could widen or close the margins among these parties before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, with the CDU and AfD closely matched at 17-20 percent and the Greens near 16 percent, leaving the contest for third place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preferences among these mid-tier parties. Trader consensus reflects this narrow gap, with AfD, Greens, and CDU priced as the main contenders while smaller parties trail well behind the five-percent threshold. The CDU's candidate switch to Stefan Evers has not produced a clear polling advantage, and ongoing volatility in support for the AfD and Greens amid national trends keeps the ordering fluid. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns could widen or close the margins among these parties before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, with the CDU and AfD closely matched at 17-20 percent and the Greens near 16 percent, leaving the contest for third place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preferences among these mid-tier parties. Trader consensus reflects this narrow gap, with AfD, Greens, and CDU priced as the main contenders while smaller parties trail well behind the five-percent threshold. The CDU's candidate switch to Stefan Evers has not produced a clear polling advantage, and ongoing volatility in support for the AfD and Greens amid national trends keeps the ordering fluid. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns could widen or close the margins among these parties before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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