Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1-2% 27%
<1% 18%
4-6% 18%
2-4% 0
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
18%
1-2%
27%
2-4%
43%
4-6%
18%
6%+
44%
1-2% 27%
<1% 18%
4-6% 18%
2-4% 0
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
$0 Vol.
18%
1-2%
$20 Vol.
27%
2-4%
$17 Vol.
43%
4-6%
$15 Vol.
18%
6%+
$6 Vol.
44%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$58End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
55%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions