Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion, reflecting the sharp slowdown already visible in Q2 data. Brazil’s central bank has kept the Selic policy rate near 14%, among the highest real rates globally, which has weighed on household consumption and fixed investment after Q1’s 1.1% sequential gain gave way to a 0.5% Q2 print. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has reinforced expectations for further modest easing, yet restrictive financial conditions and elevated household debt continue to limit domestic demand. Commodity support and fiscal stimulus provide partial offsets, but consensus forecasts point to sub-0.5% sequential growth through year-end as monetary policy transmission persists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0% to 0.2% 43%
-0.3% to -0.1% 24%
0.6% to 0.8% 20%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$10,497 Vol.
$10,497 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
12%
-0.3% to -0.1%
24%
0.0% to 0.2%
43%
0.3% to 0.5%
9%
0.6% to 0.8%
20%
0.9% to 1.1%
11%
≥1.2%
1%
0.0% to 0.2% 43%
-0.3% to -0.1% 24%
0.6% to 0.8% 20%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$10,497 Vol.
$10,497 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$144 Vol.
12%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$2,056 Vol.
24%
0.0% to 0.2%
$7,721 Vol.
43%
0.3% to 0.5%
$189 Vol.
9%
0.6% to 0.8%
$133 Vol.
20%
0.9% to 1.1%
$134 Vol.
11%
≥1.2%
$121 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion, reflecting the sharp slowdown already visible in Q2 data. Brazil’s central bank has kept the Selic policy rate near 14%, among the highest real rates globally, which has weighed on household consumption and fixed investment after Q1’s 1.1% sequential gain gave way to a 0.5% Q2 print. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has reinforced expectations for further modest easing, yet restrictive financial conditions and elevated household debt continue to limit domestic demand. Commodity support and fiscal stimulus provide partial offsets, but consensus forecasts point to sub-0.5% sequential growth through year-end as monetary policy transmission persists.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,497End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion, reflecting the sharp slowdown already visible in Q2 data. Brazil’s central bank has kept the Selic policy rate near 14%, among the highest real rates globally, which has weighed on household consumption and fixed investment after Q1’s 1.1% sequential gain gave way to a 0.5% Q2 print. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has reinforced expectations for further modest easing, yet restrictive financial conditions and elevated household debt continue to limit domestic demand. Commodity support and fiscal stimulus provide partial offsets, but consensus forecasts point to sub-0.5% sequential growth through year-end as monetary policy transmission persists.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$10,497End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion, reflecting the sharp slowdown already visible in Q2 data. Brazil’s central bank has kept the Selic policy rate near 14%, among the highest real rates globally, which has weighed on household consumption and fixed investment after Q1’s 1.1% sequential gain gave way to a 0.5% Q2 print. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has reinforced expectations for further modest easing, yet restrictive financial conditions and elevated household debt continue to limit domestic demand. Commodity support and fiscal stimulus provide partial offsets, but consensus forecasts point to sub-0.5% sequential growth through year-end as monetary policy transmission persists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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