China’s economy expanded 4.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with first-quarter growth at 5.0 percent easing to 4.3 percent in the second quarter amid resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing offset by subdued consumption and contracting fixed-asset investment. Major forecasters including the IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank project full-year expansion of 4.4–4.6 percent, aligning with the government’s 4.5–5.0 percent target range and reflecting continued support from external demand alongside structural headwinds in the property sector and domestic spending. Trader consensus for 4.0–5.0 percent growth reflects this convergence of official data, policy settings, and external conditions. Outcomes outside that band could emerge from sharper trade frictions, accelerated property contraction, or stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus reviving domestic demand.