China's traders price 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth as the overwhelming consensus for 2026 at 75.5%, aligning with the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—its lowest in decades—and major forecasts like the IMF's 4.4% projection. Q1 GDP surged 5.0% year-on-year in April, exceeding estimates via strong exports, industrial output, and infrastructure investment, yet persistent property sector contraction—now in its fifth year—and subdued domestic consumption temper optimism for sustained acceleration. Analysts cite external headwinds including trade tensions and supply risks as limiting upside to 5–6%, with fiscal policy held steady absent major new stimulus and Q2 GDP data slated for mid-July release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 76%
5.0–6.0% 19.9%
6.0-7.0% 2.1%
3.0–4.0% 2.0%
$515,541 Vol.
$515,541 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
2%
4.0–5.0%
76%
5.0–6.0%
20%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 76%
5.0–6.0% 19.9%
6.0-7.0% 2.1%
3.0–4.0% 2.0%
$515,541 Vol.
$515,541 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$41,191 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$40,116 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$20,784 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$42,806 Vol.
2%
4.0–5.0%
$130,133 Vol.
76%
5.0–6.0%
$47,904 Vol.
20%
6.0-7.0%
$45,827 Vol.
2%
7.0–8.0%
$43,992 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$19,714 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$83,075 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's traders price 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth as the overwhelming consensus for 2026 at 75.5%, aligning with the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—its lowest in decades—and major forecasts like the IMF's 4.4% projection. Q1 GDP surged 5.0% year-on-year in April, exceeding estimates via strong exports, industrial output, and infrastructure investment, yet persistent property sector contraction—now in its fifth year—and subdued domestic consumption temper optimism for sustained acceleration. Analysts cite external headwinds including trade tensions and supply risks as limiting upside to 5–6%, with fiscal policy held steady absent major new stimulus and Q2 GDP data slated for mid-July release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$515,541End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's traders price 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth as the overwhelming consensus for 2026 at 75.5%, aligning with the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—its lowest in decades—and major forecasts like the IMF's 4.4% projection. Q1 GDP surged 5.0% year-on-year in April, exceeding estimates via strong exports, industrial output, and infrastructure investment, yet persistent property sector contraction—now in its fifth year—and subdued domestic consumption temper optimism for sustained acceleration. Analysts cite external headwinds including trade tensions and supply risks as limiting upside to 5–6%, with fiscal policy held steady absent major new stimulus and Q2 GDP data slated for mid-July release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$515,541End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's traders price 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth as the overwhelming consensus for 2026 at 75.5%, aligning with the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—its lowest in decades—and major forecasts like the IMF's 4.4% projection. Q1 GDP surged 5.0% year-on-year in April, exceeding estimates via strong exports, industrial output, and infrastructure investment, yet persistent property sector contraction—now in its fifth year—and subdued domestic consumption temper optimism for sustained acceleration. Analysts cite external headwinds including trade tensions and supply risks as limiting upside to 5–6%, with fiscal policy held steady absent major new stimulus and Q2 GDP data slated for mid-July release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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