China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. Q1 2026 data showed a 5.0% expansion that beat forecasts, supported by industrial output, exports, and fiscal measures, yet analysts highlight persistent drags from weak consumption, the property sector, and elevated energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Consensus forecasts from Reuters polls, Goldman Sachs, the World Bank, and OECD cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting structural policy emphasis on quality growth over rapid expansion. While export resilience and potential additional stimulus leave room for modestly higher results, the weight of official guidance and headwinds keeps probabilities concentrated in the 4–5% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 79%
5.0–6.0% 16.5%
3.0–4.0% 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
$724,960 Vol.
$724,960 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
79%
5.0–6.0%
17%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 79%
5.0–6.0% 16.5%
3.0–4.0% 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
$724,960 Vol.
$724,960 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$60,318 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$72,622 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$42,059 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$66,295 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$170,704 Vol.
79%
5.0–6.0%
$69,424 Vol.
17%
6.0-7.0%
$64,342 Vol.
1%
7.0–8.0%
$61,449 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$26,432 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$91,314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. Q1 2026 data showed a 5.0% expansion that beat forecasts, supported by industrial output, exports, and fiscal measures, yet analysts highlight persistent drags from weak consumption, the property sector, and elevated energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Consensus forecasts from Reuters polls, Goldman Sachs, the World Bank, and OECD cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting structural policy emphasis on quality growth over rapid expansion. While export resilience and potential additional stimulus leave room for modestly higher results, the weight of official guidance and headwinds keeps probabilities concentrated in the 4–5% range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$724,960End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. Q1 2026 data showed a 5.0% expansion that beat forecasts, supported by industrial output, exports, and fiscal measures, yet analysts highlight persistent drags from weak consumption, the property sector, and elevated energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Consensus forecasts from Reuters polls, Goldman Sachs, the World Bank, and OECD cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting structural policy emphasis on quality growth over rapid expansion. While export resilience and potential additional stimulus leave room for modestly higher results, the weight of official guidance and headwinds keeps probabilities concentrated in the 4–5% range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$724,960End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. Q1 2026 data showed a 5.0% expansion that beat forecasts, supported by industrial output, exports, and fiscal measures, yet analysts highlight persistent drags from weak consumption, the property sector, and elevated energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Consensus forecasts from Reuters polls, Goldman Sachs, the World Bank, and OECD cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting structural policy emphasis on quality growth over rapid expansion. While export resilience and potential additional stimulus leave room for modestly higher results, the weight of official guidance and headwinds keeps probabilities concentrated in the 4–5% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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