Trader sentiment on Polymarket for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities of 50.2% for 0.6%-0.9% narrowly leading 44.1% for 0.9%-1.2%, as bettors weigh accelerating monthly proxies against economist consensus around 0.6% quarter-on-quarter ahead of tomorrow's Office for National Statistics release. February's surprise 0.5% month-on-month GDP expansion—double the expected 0.1%—and Q1 retail sales volumes rising 1.6% signal services sector momentum, partially offsetting January's subdued start and lingering manufacturing weakness. April PMIs showing composite output at 52.0 further bolster upside nowcasts, though revisions to prior months and final March data represent key swing factors that could tip the balance. Bank of England projections highlight modest 2026 growth amid persistent inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.6-0.9% 50.2%
0.9-1.2% 44.3%
0.3-0.6% 3.8%
1.2-1.5% 2.8%
$36,338 Vol.
$36,338 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
<1%
0.0-0.3%
1%
0.3-0.6%
4%
0.6-0.9%
50%
0.9-1.2%
44%
1.2-1.5%
3%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%+
<1%
0.6-0.9% 50.2%
0.9-1.2% 44.3%
0.3-0.6% 3.8%
1.2-1.5% 2.8%
$36,338 Vol.
$36,338 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
$6,721 Vol.
<1%
0.0-0.3%
$10,989 Vol.
1%
0.3-0.6%
$2,441 Vol.
4%
0.6-0.9%
$8,184 Vol.
50%
0.9-1.2%
$1,392 Vol.
44%
1.2-1.5%
$1,403 Vol.
3%
1.5-1.8%
$1,601 Vol.
<1%
1.8%+
$3,607 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities of 50.2% for 0.6%-0.9% narrowly leading 44.1% for 0.9%-1.2%, as bettors weigh accelerating monthly proxies against economist consensus around 0.6% quarter-on-quarter ahead of tomorrow's Office for National Statistics release. February's surprise 0.5% month-on-month GDP expansion—double the expected 0.1%—and Q1 retail sales volumes rising 1.6% signal services sector momentum, partially offsetting January's subdued start and lingering manufacturing weakness. April PMIs showing composite output at 52.0 further bolster upside nowcasts, though revisions to prior months and final March data represent key swing factors that could tip the balance. Bank of England projections highlight modest 2026 growth amid persistent inflation pressures.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$36,338End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities of 50.2% for 0.6%-0.9% narrowly leading 44.1% for 0.9%-1.2%, as bettors weigh accelerating monthly proxies against economist consensus around 0.6% quarter-on-quarter ahead of tomorrow's Office for National Statistics release. February's surprise 0.5% month-on-month GDP expansion—double the expected 0.1%—and Q1 retail sales volumes rising 1.6% signal services sector momentum, partially offsetting January's subdued start and lingering manufacturing weakness. April PMIs showing composite output at 52.0 further bolster upside nowcasts, though revisions to prior months and final March data represent key swing factors that could tip the balance. Bank of England projections highlight modest 2026 growth amid persistent inflation pressures.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,338End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities of 50.2% for 0.6%-0.9% narrowly leading 44.1% for 0.9%-1.2%, as bettors weigh accelerating monthly proxies against economist consensus around 0.6% quarter-on-quarter ahead of tomorrow's Office for National Statistics release. February's surprise 0.5% month-on-month GDP expansion—double the expected 0.1%—and Q1 retail sales volumes rising 1.6% signal services sector momentum, partially offsetting January's subdued start and lingering manufacturing weakness. April PMIs showing composite output at 52.0 further bolster upside nowcasts, though revisions to prior months and final March data represent key swing factors that could tip the balance. Bank of England projections highlight modest 2026 growth amid persistent inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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