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Economy·Macro Indicators

How many jobs added in May?

icon for How many jobs added in May?
Economy·Macro Indicators

How many jobs added in May?

Jun 5

Jun 5

100k – 150k 41%

200k+ 34%

<0 27%

150k – 200k 23%

Polymarket
NEW

100k – 150k 41%

200k+ 34%

<0 27%

150k – 200k 23%

Polymarket
NEW

<0

$138 Vol.

27%

0 – 50k

$52 Vol.

13%

50k – 100k

$40 Vol.

17%

100k – 150k

$63 Vol.

47%

150k – 200k

$38 Vol.

23%

200k+

$38 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmApril's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$369
End Date
Jun 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmApril's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$369
End Date
Jun 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many jobs added in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "100k – 150k" at 47%, followed by "200k+" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many jobs added in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many jobs added in May?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many jobs added in May?" is "100k – 150k" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "200k+" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many jobs added in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.