Tight U.S. cattle supplies, stemming from a multi-year herd contraction driven by droughts and elevated feed costs, remain the dominant driver keeping retail ground beef prices near record levels around $6.75 per pound as of May 2026. USDA data project 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds amid slower slaughter, with strong consumer protein demand and constrained domestic lean trimmings sustaining upward pressure despite robust imports of lean beef. Potential tariff adjustments on imports introduce additional upside risk to prices, while gradual herd stabilization and affordability concerns could moderate gains later in the year. Seasonal summer demand and any revisions to official production forecasts represent key near-term variables for trader positioning.