Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, with the market-implied probability of finishing 2026 above that level at 66.3%. The recent advance stems from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, which have stoked inflation concerns, alongside higher U.S. Treasury yields above 5% and expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and potential defense outlays near 3.5% of GDP, has also lifted term premia. With core inflation near 1.8–1.9% and further BoJ normalization anticipated, traders see limited scope for yields to fall below 3% by year-end absent a sharp reversal in global rates or domestic growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 13.9%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,258 Vol.
$29,258 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
4%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
15%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 13.9%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,258 Vol.
$29,258 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
4%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
15%
3.0%+
$11,170 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, with the market-implied probability of finishing 2026 above that level at 66.3%. The recent advance stems from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, which have stoked inflation concerns, alongside higher U.S. Treasury yields above 5% and expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and potential defense outlays near 3.5% of GDP, has also lifted term premia. With core inflation near 1.8–1.9% and further BoJ normalization anticipated, traders see limited scope for yields to fall below 3% by year-end absent a sharp reversal in global rates or domestic growth.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,258End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, with the market-implied probability of finishing 2026 above that level at 66.3%. The recent advance stems from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, which have stoked inflation concerns, alongside higher U.S. Treasury yields above 5% and expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and potential defense outlays near 3.5% of GDP, has also lifted term premia. With core inflation near 1.8–1.9% and further BoJ normalization anticipated, traders see limited scope for yields to fall below 3% by year-end absent a sharp reversal in global rates or domestic growth.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,258End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, with the market-implied probability of finishing 2026 above that level at 66.3%. The recent advance stems from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, which have stoked inflation concerns, alongside higher U.S. Treasury yields above 5% and expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting. Fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and potential defense outlays near 3.5% of GDP, has also lifted term premia. With core inflation near 1.8–1.9% and further BoJ normalization anticipated, traders see limited scope for yields to fall below 3% by year-end absent a sharp reversal in global rates or domestic growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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