Trader consensus on a low probability of direct China-Japan military clash before 2027 reflects ongoing gray-zone maritime and aerial activity without escalation to kinetic engagement. Recent increases in Chinese research vessels operating in Japan's exclusive economic zone near southwestern islands, alongside repeated air incursions and coast guard patrols near the Senkaku Islands, have prompted Japanese scrambles and diplomatic protests but remained below armed thresholds. Strained ties since late 2025 over Taiwan-related statements persist amid mutual defense buildups and economic measures, yet bilateral channels stay active and the U.S.-Japan alliance continues to shape risk calculations. Plausible shifts could stem from miscalculation during close encounters, joint exercises, or spillover from a Taiwan contingency within the narrow window.