President Trump’s arrival in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has boosted trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with Yes shares at 72.5% amid reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports and a potential truce extension. Recent Paris trade talks cleared paths for numerical targets avoiding economic model changes, while Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled de-risking efforts and possible tariff reductions by early July. Building on 2025 suspensions that eased triple-digit levies, the high-stakes bilateral meeting addresses fragile truce risks, though Taiwan tensions and escalation threats persist as key uncertainties ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$42,267 Vol.
$42,267 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$42,267 Vol.
$42,267 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump’s arrival in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has boosted trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with Yes shares at 72.5% amid reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports and a potential truce extension. Recent Paris trade talks cleared paths for numerical targets avoiding economic model changes, while Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled de-risking efforts and possible tariff reductions by early July. Building on 2025 suspensions that eased triple-digit levies, the high-stakes bilateral meeting addresses fragile truce risks, though Taiwan tensions and escalation threats persist as key uncertainties ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$42,267End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump’s arrival in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has boosted trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with Yes shares at 72.5% amid reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports and a potential truce extension. Recent Paris trade talks cleared paths for numerical targets avoiding economic model changes, while Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled de-risking efforts and possible tariff reductions by early July. Building on 2025 suspensions that eased triple-digit levies, the high-stakes bilateral meeting addresses fragile truce risks, though Taiwan tensions and escalation threats persist as key uncertainties ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$42,267End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s arrival in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has boosted trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with Yes shares at 72.5% amid reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports and a potential truce extension. Recent Paris trade talks cleared paths for numerical targets avoiding economic model changes, while Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled de-risking efforts and possible tariff reductions by early July. Building on 2025 suspensions that eased triple-digit levies, the high-stakes bilateral meeting addresses fragile truce risks, though Taiwan tensions and escalation threats persist as key uncertainties ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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