Recent diplomatic engagement between the Trump and Xi administrations, including their late-September summit and agreement to finalize a military crisis-communication memorandum, has reinforced channels for managing incidents in the Indo-Pacific. Ongoing South China Sea exercises around Scarborough Shoal remain localized, centered on Philippine resupply disputes rather than direct U.S. involvement, with no reported escalations involving American forces in the prior 30 days. Traders assign the 97.6% probability to “No” on the basis of this stabilized bilateral framework and the narrow three-month window remaining before 2027. A direct clash would still require an unforeseen miscalculation, rapid Taiwan Strait flare-up, or unintended collision during routine patrols that bypasses existing hotlines.