Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father’s killing in a February US-Israeli strike, has issued only written statements and avoided all verified public appearances, citing security risks tied to ongoing regional tensions. Recent mourning ceremonies in November 2026 for Lady Fatima al-Zahra proceeded at the Zeinabiyeh complex without his attendance, consistent with his pattern since succession. Iranian officials have attributed the absence to protection concerns and recovery from injuries sustained in the attack, while meetings with officials occur privately. These factors sustain trader consensus around an 11% implied probability of a confirmed appearance by year-end, as recurring religious and state events have not produced photographic or video evidence despite opportunities for visibility.