Ongoing tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits often in the single digits or low teens compared to the pre-conflict average of 125-140 vessels. Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against shipping since early March, despite an April 8 ceasefire and limited US efforts to escort vessels, leaving ship operators reluctant to resume full routes amid unresolved risks. Data through mid-May showed no meaningful recovery, aligning with assessments that normalization would require months even after any immediate reopening. Trader consensus at near-certainty on the negative outcome reflects these sustained disruptions, though a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified lifting of all constraints could still alter longer-term trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$17,447,377 Vol.
$17,447,377 Vol.
May 15, 2026
$17,447,377 Vol.
$17,447,377 Vol.
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits often in the single digits or low teens compared to the pre-conflict average of 125-140 vessels. Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against shipping since early March, despite an April 8 ceasefire and limited US efforts to escort vessels, leaving ship operators reluctant to resume full routes amid unresolved risks. Data through mid-May showed no meaningful recovery, aligning with assessments that normalization would require months even after any immediate reopening. Trader consensus at near-certainty on the negative outcome reflects these sustained disruptions, though a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified lifting of all constraints could still alter longer-term trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$17,447,377End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits often in the single digits or low teens compared to the pre-conflict average of 125-140 vessels. Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against shipping since early March, despite an April 8 ceasefire and limited US efforts to escort vessels, leaving ship operators reluctant to resume full routes amid unresolved risks. Data through mid-May showed no meaningful recovery, aligning with assessments that normalization would require months even after any immediate reopening. Trader consensus at near-certainty on the negative outcome reflects these sustained disruptions, though a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified lifting of all constraints could still alter longer-term trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$17,447,377End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits often in the single digits or low teens compared to the pre-conflict average of 125-140 vessels. Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against shipping since early March, despite an April 8 ceasefire and limited US efforts to escort vessels, leaving ship operators reluctant to resume full routes amid unresolved risks. Data through mid-May showed no meaningful recovery, aligning with assessments that normalization would require months even after any immediate reopening. Trader consensus at near-certainty on the negative outcome reflects these sustained disruptions, though a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified lifting of all constraints could still alter longer-term trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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