**The high probability assigned to "No" (88.5%) reflects trader assessment that the January 2026 U.S. military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro constituted a targeted operation rather than a full-scale invasion of another country, with no comparable actions materializing through mid-August.** Subsequent policy has emphasized multilateral initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas coalition for counter-cartel operations, joint strikes with partners like Ecuador, and naval interdictions in the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic summits and economic pressure rather than unilateral ground invasions. No official announcements, troop buildups, or congressional authorizations signal plans for broader military occupation of additional Latin American nations by year-end. Traders view the early-year Venezuela action—framed under an updated Monroe Doctrine emphasis—as an outlier tied to specific narco-terrorism and resource concerns, with current momentum directed toward sustained but limited enforcement and regional partnerships instead of escalation to new invasions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$269,623 Vol.
$269,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$269,623 Vol.
$269,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**The high probability assigned to "No" (88.5%) reflects trader assessment that the January 2026 U.S. military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro constituted a targeted operation rather than a full-scale invasion of another country, with no comparable actions materializing through mid-August.**
Subsequent policy has emphasized multilateral initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas coalition for counter-cartel operations, joint strikes with partners like Ecuador, and naval interdictions in the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic summits and economic pressure rather than unilateral ground invasions. No official announcements, troop buildups, or congressional authorizations signal plans for broader military occupation of additional Latin American nations by year-end. Traders view the early-year Venezuela action—framed under an updated Monroe Doctrine emphasis—as an outlier tied to specific narco-terrorism and resource concerns, with current momentum directed toward sustained but limited enforcement and regional partnerships instead of escalation to new invasions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$269,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**The high probability assigned to "No" (88.5%) reflects trader assessment that the January 2026 U.S. military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro constituted a targeted operation rather than a full-scale invasion of another country, with no comparable actions materializing through mid-August.**
Subsequent policy has emphasized multilateral initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas coalition for counter-cartel operations, joint strikes with partners like Ecuador, and naval interdictions in the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic summits and economic pressure rather than unilateral ground invasions. No official announcements, troop buildups, or congressional authorizations signal plans for broader military occupation of additional Latin American nations by year-end. Traders view the early-year Venezuela action—framed under an updated Monroe Doctrine emphasis—as an outlier tied to specific narco-terrorism and resource concerns, with current momentum directed toward sustained but limited enforcement and regional partnerships instead of escalation to new invasions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$269,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The high probability assigned to "No" (88.5%) reflects trader assessment that the January 2026 U.S. military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro constituted a targeted operation rather than a full-scale invasion of another country, with no comparable actions materializing through mid-August.** Subsequent policy has emphasized multilateral initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas coalition for counter-cartel operations, joint strikes with partners like Ecuador, and naval interdictions in the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic summits and economic pressure rather than unilateral ground invasions. No official announcements, troop buildups, or congressional authorizations signal plans for broader military occupation of additional Latin American nations by year-end. Traders view the early-year Venezuela action—framed under an updated Monroe Doctrine emphasis—as an outlier tied to specific narco-terrorism and resource concerns, with current momentum directed toward sustained but limited enforcement and regional partnerships instead of escalation to new invasions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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