Trader consensus favors "No" at 75% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion or occupation to date despite heightened tensions. The January 3 raid in Venezuela—Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Nicolás Maduro—was a limited special operations strike rather than qualifying as an invasion under typical market criteria like sustained troop deployments. Recent developments, including President Trump's May 7 threats against Cuba privately disavowed per AP sources and a shift toward partnered anti-cartel strikes in Ecuador, reinforce de-escalation signals. Revived Panama jungle training and counterinsurgency blueprints sustain 25% "Yes" odds amid Monroe Doctrine rhetoric and potential escalations through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$220,126 Vol.
$220,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$220,126 Vol.
$220,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 75% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion or occupation to date despite heightened tensions. The January 3 raid in Venezuela—Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Nicolás Maduro—was a limited special operations strike rather than qualifying as an invasion under typical market criteria like sustained troop deployments. Recent developments, including President Trump's May 7 threats against Cuba privately disavowed per AP sources and a shift toward partnered anti-cartel strikes in Ecuador, reinforce de-escalation signals. Revived Panama jungle training and counterinsurgency blueprints sustain 25% "Yes" odds amid Monroe Doctrine rhetoric and potential escalations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$220,126End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 75% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion or occupation to date despite heightened tensions. The January 3 raid in Venezuela—Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Nicolás Maduro—was a limited special operations strike rather than qualifying as an invasion under typical market criteria like sustained troop deployments. Recent developments, including President Trump's May 7 threats against Cuba privately disavowed per AP sources and a shift toward partnered anti-cartel strikes in Ecuador, reinforce de-escalation signals. Revived Panama jungle training and counterinsurgency blueprints sustain 25% "Yes" odds amid Monroe Doctrine rhetoric and potential escalations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$220,126End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 75% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion or occupation to date despite heightened tensions. The January 3 raid in Venezuela—Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Nicolás Maduro—was a limited special operations strike rather than qualifying as an invasion under typical market criteria like sustained troop deployments. Recent developments, including President Trump's May 7 threats against Cuba privately disavowed per AP sources and a shift toward partnered anti-cartel strikes in Ecuador, reinforce de-escalation signals. Revived Panama jungle training and counterinsurgency blueprints sustain 25% "Yes" odds amid Monroe Doctrine rhetoric and potential escalations through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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