Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the market stems from his Prosperity Party’s decisive victory in Ethiopia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, in which it secured roughly 438 of 501 contested seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Under Ethiopia’s parliamentary system the House selects the prime minister, and the ruling party’s supermajority—achieved despite low opposition turnout, regional insecurity, and limited participation in areas such as Tigray—positions Abiy for formal reappointment when the new parliament convenes. Traders assign minimal probability to alternatives because the election results leave little procedural room for other candidates to emerge before the expected October swearing-in. Even with this near-certainty, the outcome could shift only in the event of unforeseen developments such as a sudden leadership transition within the Prosperity Party or a constitutional change altering selection rules before the House vote.