Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDonalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 21%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$18,953 Vol.
$18,953 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
45%
Donalds 35–40%
21%
Donalds 30–35%
16%
Donalds 25–30%
4%
Donalds 20–25%
3%
Donalds 15–20%
3%
Donalds 10–15%
2%
Donalds 5–10%
3%
Donalds <5%
<1%
Collins wins
<1%
Fishback wins
1%
Donalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 21%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$18,953 Vol.
$18,953 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
$8,909 Vol.
45%
Donalds 35–40%
$6,071 Vol.
21%
Donalds 30–35%
$690 Vol.
16%
Donalds 25–30%
$436 Vol.
4%
Donalds 20–25%
$426 Vol.
3%
Donalds 15–20%
$438 Vol.
3%
Donalds 10–15%
$378 Vol.
2%
Donalds 5–10%
$361 Vol.
3%
Donalds <5%
$315 Vol.
<1%
Collins wins
$466 Vol.
<1%
Fishback wins
$463 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$18,953End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$18,953End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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