Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38-42 percent while Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28-35 percent, leaving other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son Flávio, who received the party nomination in late July. June audio recordings and a publicized family dispute temporarily dented Flávio’s numbers, yet subsequent surveys indicate recovery among core voters. Traders therefore price Flávio as the overwhelming consensus choice for second place, reflecting the limited fragmentation visible in current polling averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Renan Santos 5.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,823,336 Vol.
$4,823,336 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Renan Santos 5.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,823,336 Vol.
$4,823,336 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$286,129 Vol.
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$263,906 Vol.
7%
Renan Santos
$1,115,470 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$363,525 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$120,835 Vol.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$712,252 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$144,426 Vol.
<1%
Romeu Zema
$312,827 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$109,372 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$70,228 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$207,106 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$138,456 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$681,218 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$162,025 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$79,085 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,972 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,504 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38-42 percent while Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28-35 percent, leaving other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son Flávio, who received the party nomination in late July. June audio recordings and a publicized family dispute temporarily dented Flávio’s numbers, yet subsequent surveys indicate recovery among core voters. Traders therefore price Flávio as the overwhelming consensus choice for second place, reflecting the limited fragmentation visible in current polling averages.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$4,823,336End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38-42 percent while Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28-35 percent, leaving other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son Flávio, who received the party nomination in late July. June audio recordings and a publicized family dispute temporarily dented Flávio’s numbers, yet subsequent surveys indicate recovery among core voters. Traders therefore price Flávio as the overwhelming consensus choice for second place, reflecting the limited fragmentation visible in current polling averages.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,823,336End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38-42 percent while Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28-35 percent, leaving other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son Flávio, who received the party nomination in late July. June audio recordings and a publicized family dispute temporarily dented Flávio’s numbers, yet subsequent surveys indicate recovery among core voters. Traders therefore price Flávio as the overwhelming consensus choice for second place, reflecting the limited fragmentation visible in current polling averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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