**Flávio Bolsonaro leads market pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls place him solidly behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while far ahead of all other registered candidates.** Surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and AtlasIntel show Lula at 39–45% and Flávio at 34–42% in first-round scenarios, with the next contenders—Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado—typically in the low single digits. This pattern reflects the consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party senator as the primary challenger to the Workers’ Party incumbent, reinforced by family political legacy and voter polarization. Late-September polling movements have remained within margins of error, with no evidence of other candidates closing the gap ahead of the vote.