Recent polls, including Quaest (May 8-11) showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 33% in the first round, and Futura (May 4-8) with a razor-thin Lula 38.1%-37.4% margin, have tightened the race ahead of the October 4 vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victories. Lula's incumbency and left-wing base provide a polling edge averaging 4-6 points over Flávio, who is consolidating right-wing support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll 3-5% each. Odds favor Lula under 5% margin (33%) or 5-10% (19.5%), or Flávio under 5% (22.5%), as undecided voters (10-15%) and potential right-wing unity could tip the balance toward a runoff if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Other 6.1%
$230,481 Vol.
$230,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
33%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
23%
Renan Santos Victory
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
6%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Other 6.1%
$230,481 Vol.
$230,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,510 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,389 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
33%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,299 Vol.
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$3,879 Vol.
23%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,064 Vol.
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,607 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,244 Vol.
6%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Quaest (May 8-11) showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 33% in the first round, and Futura (May 4-8) with a razor-thin Lula 38.1%-37.4% margin, have tightened the race ahead of the October 4 vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victories. Lula's incumbency and left-wing base provide a polling edge averaging 4-6 points over Flávio, who is consolidating right-wing support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll 3-5% each. Odds favor Lula under 5% margin (33%) or 5-10% (19.5%), or Flávio under 5% (22.5%), as undecided voters (10-15%) and potential right-wing unity could tip the balance toward a runoff if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$230,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Quaest (May 8-11) showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 33% in the first round, and Futura (May 4-8) with a razor-thin Lula 38.1%-37.4% margin, have tightened the race ahead of the October 4 vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victories. Lula's incumbency and left-wing base provide a polling edge averaging 4-6 points over Flávio, who is consolidating right-wing support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll 3-5% each. Odds favor Lula under 5% margin (33%) or 5-10% (19.5%), or Flávio under 5% (22.5%), as undecided voters (10-15%) and potential right-wing unity could tip the balance toward a runoff if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$230,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Quaest (May 8-11) showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 33% in the first round, and Futura (May 4-8) with a razor-thin Lula 38.1%-37.4% margin, have tightened the race ahead of the October 4 vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victories. Lula's incumbency and left-wing base provide a polling edge averaging 4-6 points over Flávio, who is consolidating right-wing support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll 3-5% each. Odds favor Lula under 5% margin (33%) or 5-10% (19.5%), or Flávio under 5% (22.5%), as undecided voters (10-15%) and potential right-wing unity could tip the balance toward a runoff if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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