Recent disinflation has bolstered expectations for further easing by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom at its mid-September meeting. July IPCA inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year from 4.64% in June, moving back inside the 4.5% target ceiling, with the monthly reading at just 0.07% amid softer food and energy prices. This follows the bank’s unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive reduction—as growth shows signs of cooling while the labor market remains relatively tight. Market surveys now project the Selic at 13.75% by year-end, implying one additional quarter-point move, though Copom’s statement stressed data dependence and noted an upside-skewed inflation risk balance tied to fiscal stimulus ahead of October elections. The 84.5% implied probability for another 25 basis point cut reflects trader consensus on continued gradual normalization, tempered by the 13.5% odds of a pause if incoming data rekindle price pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps decrease 84.5%
No Change 14%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$103,096 Vol.
$103,096 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
14%
25 bps decrease
85%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease 84.5%
No Change 14%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$103,096 Vol.
$103,096 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
50+ bps increase
$5,154 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$5,863 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$33,491 Vol.
14%
25 bps decrease
$48,454 Vol.
85%
50+ bps decrease
$10,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent disinflation has bolstered expectations for further easing by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom at its mid-September meeting. July IPCA inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year from 4.64% in June, moving back inside the 4.5% target ceiling, with the monthly reading at just 0.07% amid softer food and energy prices. This follows the bank’s unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive reduction—as growth shows signs of cooling while the labor market remains relatively tight. Market surveys now project the Selic at 13.75% by year-end, implying one additional quarter-point move, though Copom’s statement stressed data dependence and noted an upside-skewed inflation risk balance tied to fiscal stimulus ahead of October elections. The 84.5% implied probability for another 25 basis point cut reflects trader consensus on continued gradual normalization, tempered by the 13.5% odds of a pause if incoming data rekindle price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$103,096End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent disinflation has bolstered expectations for further easing by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom at its mid-September meeting. July IPCA inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year from 4.64% in June, moving back inside the 4.5% target ceiling, with the monthly reading at just 0.07% amid softer food and energy prices. This follows the bank’s unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive reduction—as growth shows signs of cooling while the labor market remains relatively tight. Market surveys now project the Selic at 13.75% by year-end, implying one additional quarter-point move, though Copom’s statement stressed data dependence and noted an upside-skewed inflation risk balance tied to fiscal stimulus ahead of October elections. The 84.5% implied probability for another 25 basis point cut reflects trader consensus on continued gradual normalization, tempered by the 13.5% odds of a pause if incoming data rekindle price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$103,096End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent disinflation has bolstered expectations for further easing by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom at its mid-September meeting. July IPCA inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year from 4.64% in June, moving back inside the 4.5% target ceiling, with the monthly reading at just 0.07% amid softer food and energy prices. This follows the bank’s unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive reduction—as growth shows signs of cooling while the labor market remains relatively tight. Market surveys now project the Selic at 13.75% by year-end, implying one additional quarter-point move, though Copom’s statement stressed data dependence and noted an upside-skewed inflation risk balance tied to fiscal stimulus ahead of October elections. The 84.5% implied probability for another 25 basis point cut reflects trader consensus on continued gradual normalization, tempered by the 13.5% odds of a pause if incoming data rekindle price pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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