The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision to hold the key rate at 14% for the first time since mid-2025 has anchored trader expectations for the October 23 meeting. Officials cited a significant recent pickup in price pressures, with underlying inflation accelerating to 5–6% annualized amid temporary fuel production shortfalls and broader effects on goods and services. Elevated inflation expectations, a tight labor market, and pending updates to fiscal parameters—including a potentially larger structural budget deficit—have reinforced the need for additional data before any further easing. The central bank’s neutral signal and plan to revise its medium-term forecast in October underscore a cautious, data-dependent approach, limiting room for a cut while making an increase appear remote given the moderate pace of economic growth.